Later Today (Election Night)

November 2, 2010

I generally don’t like it when politics is covered like sports. It lowers the discussion to being about “the game” rather than the competition of ideas.

So, it is somewhat paradoxical that I am looking forward to tomorrow like a normal person would look forward to the Super Bowl. I’ll be up late.

It’s always hard to know which network to watch, and, personally, I’ll probably switch between them, but there is web site you may want to follow.

Nate Silver is a statistician and a Liberal, but as far as his craft goes, he appears genuine. What makes his site interesting is that he has ranked every race by the likelihood of every candidate to prevail.

Right now he’s calling for Republicans to take 48 Senate Seats, 233 House seats, and 30 Governorships. He’s got an interesting methodology for updating the tallies as the night goes on. Unfortunately, I can’t figure out a way to explain it simply in the time I have tonight.

You can find his results page here: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/31/the-ultimate-hour-by-hour-district-by-district-election-guide/

Nate, like all pollsters, are a bit wary of how fluid this election is. Nate discussed five reasons why either the Republicans or nd Democrats could do much better than the polls currently indicate: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Talk about hedging.

It’s hard to see how the Senate could have 51 Republican Senators when the dust settles, yet this is what I’m predicting. Nate (and I) since I thought of it independently of him would call this the Scott Brown effect. Republicans who normally don’t vote are going to come out of the woodwork in places like California and Washington.

This phenomenon will make the impossible seem possible. So, I’m sticking with my prediction, even though, it’s hard to see how it can happen by tallying up the probabilities.

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