October 7, 2010

This is the first time I’ve seen parity (48-48) in terms of party prospects for the Senate. I believe the Reps will take it and the House.
I also believe Chris Christie will be the Republican 2012 nominee. The people will be ready for someone who means what he says and actually takes actions to back it up. That and he is actually governing something. A lot of the others just don’t have a job. In addition:
Palin is not sufficiently popular.
Romney has Romney-care, and he isn’t viewed as a genuine conservative
Jeb Bush’s last name is Bush.
Huckabee has no appeal beyond evangelicals (but his participation could again sink Romney)
Earlier I underestimated how much a lot of people viscerally dislike Gingrich
But like Gingrich, Christie has a way of slicing up the arguments of his opponents. He just does it in a more amiable way that people can better relate to. Christie also doesn’t have a contract with Fox News, which will help.
Most of all he’s a guy who will appear to what were/are known as Reagan Democrats.
It’s a long shot, but I’m betting on it.

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