I’ve had two big hypotheses. . .

August 31, 2010

. . .over the past ten years that I walked away from. Now I’m walking back.

The first was that the right strategy in the Middle East was to allow their natural instincts to get the better of them and encourage them to engage each other in open warfare. This would have a number of benefits, First, if, for example, Iran and Iraq were at war, then no one would mind if we took out Iran’s nuclear facilities. The second is that if these countries were spending their resources on fighting each other, then they’d have less ability to fight us. The British used this idea effectively for quite some time.

Then I got caught up in the idealism and nationalism regarding the war in Iraq. So, I lost confidence in this idea, but in retrospect I now again think it would have been the right strategy.

The second was that, like Clinton, Obama would bring the Republicans back in power. Then I lost confidence in that idea, somewhat intimidated by the cult of personality surrounding him. Now, it’s all but certain the Republicans will win big this fall, and I now think Obama will not be able to reverse that in 2012.

First, he ideologically has no idea where the center is. So, he can’t tack there. Second, he’s just not that interested in the job. He’ll likely want to pursue a “higher” calling, like Secretary General of the UN from where he can continue to criticize Americans to a more receptive audience. Thirdly, these people aren’t really that smart. If they were they wouldn’t have had to struggle like they did to pass the health care bill, despite large majorities in both houses of Congress.

I’ve never seen an organization that appeared to be as well-run from an inside view as it appeared to be from the outside. I can’t imagine political organizations are any different.

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