Baseball and the November Elections

August 10, 2008

Okay here’s a site put together by Nate Silver. Silver is the inventor of Pecota, which is a method for predicting the performance of individual baseball players and also teams. By many accounts he has a pretty good record.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PECOTA

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/

While I haven’t looked this through thoroughly, I have to say it looks like his team has thought through the issue of baseball predictions well. Silver has turned his talents to the political arena at fivethirtyeight.com. He gained credence when he did a better job of predicting the Democratic outcomes in Indiana and North Carolina better than just about anybody. He supports Obama by the way.

He’s currently projecting Obama over McCain 294 to 243, but the trend is with McCain. Regardless, his site is a great one-stop shop for the latest poll results and from which to base scenario analysis. As you know I’ve been thinking McCain is going to pull this one out for quite some time.

I’ve attached my analysis for how this could happen even if he loses Pennsylvania, which seems likely. To make this work he can’t lose anywhere he’s ahead, plus he needs to win Ohio, Virgina, Colorado, and Nevada; all states where he’s close.

This may also explain why McCain is said to be considering Romney as his running mate, a man it is also said, he doesn’t like. It might bring Michigan into play where McCain has a shot and it may solidify Nevada, which has a relatively large Mormon population. I supported Romney during the primaries, but if I were McCain, I’d put the decision off as long as possible to see where my VP might shore me up where it might make a difference.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Can he do it? Michael Barone has some advice

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/07/ghosts_of_1976_in_todays_campa.html

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